Swami Weekly Wrap [Special Year-End Deep Dive] Dec 29, 2025
Hi Swami Subs,
Quick Housekeeping (Please Read)
Before we get started, a quick update: Swami Research has a new home.
Our new website and email delivery platform is now live at:
If you haven’t already, please re-subscribe before January 1st to ensure you continue receiving weekly wraps, macro updates, and portfolio signals heading into 2026.
Swami Macro Scorecard — 2025 in Review
As we close out the year, it’s worth stepping back and reviewing how the macro system performed.
- 35 total macro signals in 2025
- 26 correct calls
- 9 incorrect calls
- 74% overall accuracy
- At one point, the system delivered 18 correct signals in a row
Just as important as the hit rate: the system cut risk quickly when trends failed (TLT, USD late-year), and stayed aligned with dominant trends (equities, gold) for the bulk of the year.
This discipline is exactly what allowed Swami to avoid extended drawdowns while staying invested when trends mattered most.
Average Swami Score vs. 2025 YTD Returns
One of the most important takeaways from 2025:
Higher average Swami Scores strongly correlated with stronger 2025 returns.
Across equities, ETFs, and themes:
- Assets with persistently high Swami Scores clustered in the upper-right quadrant of returns
- Assets with negative or deteriorating scores consistently lagged or lost money
- The relationship held across market caps, sectors, and themes
This reinforces what the system is designed to do:
- Measure signal strength, not stories
- Stay invested in what is working
- Systematically remove what is weakening