Swami Weekly Wrap: Sept 29, 2025 [Energy in play, and the dollar showing first signs of strength]
Hi Swami Subs,
Last week’s themes largely carried over — bonds (TLT) continue to firm above trend, commodities like DBA/USO are still holding bullish, and Bitcoin stays constructive inside its uptrend. The big change? The dollar (DXY) has started to strengthen, shifting from last week’s bearish tone to something we now need to watch more closely. Equities are still pushing higher, with energy (XLE) bouncing, though our Add levels remain untouched.
COMMODITIES: No change to gold call; USO/DBA holding bullish trend
BONDS: TLT holding above trend, key level TLT 88.23 this week
EQUITIES: No changes to signals; clear bounce for XLE, but Swami Add level not reached; key index targets this week: SPY $652 and QQQ $585
CRYPTO: Bitcoin holding bullish trend but needs a higher high soon
CURRENCIES: Don’t look now but DXY strengthening. Too early to tell but look for higher low + push toward trend line
Swami All-Equity Portfolio:
Performance of the Swami All-Equity portfolio remains robust, even as our portfolio declined 0.3% last week (vs SPY -0.2%). Our YTD performance is +23.2% versus 13.9% for SPY, as of Friday's close. The portfolio is rebalanced each Friday at market close to reflect the top exposures within the SECTORS, FACTOR, and THEMATIC ETFs we track, as well as within the top ASSET HEAVY and ASSET LIGHT Individual Equities we send out in the Daily ETF Report. Many of last weeks "top signals" remain in the portfolio: XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF) is going to its 4th straight week as a top signal (and was the top performing SECTOR ETF at last week at +4.8% vs SPY -0.3%) while JPM (JP Morgan Chase) is going into it's 5th straight week as a top signal as a "Asset Heavy" Individual MegaCap we signal on.
New Additions / Buys
- XLE (Energy) continues as the top sector signal, now joined by XLC (Communications).
- On the factor side, Russell 1k Growth (IWF), MegaCap Growth (MGK), and Vanguard Growth (VUG) all strengthened, keeping growth leadership in focus.
- Thematic exposure rotated into Amplify Online Retail (IBUY) and Cloud Computing (SKYY).
- In equities, Apple (AAPL), Shopify (SHOP), and Tesla (TSLA) lead the Asset Light group, while JP Morgan (JPM) anchors Asset Heavy.
Exits / Sells
- XLRE (Real Estate) was removed on the sector side.
- QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust), GDX (Gold Miners), and IPO ETF were cut from the portfolio.
- Amazon (AMZN) rolled off the Asset Light sleeve.
Takeaway
This week’s rebalance rotates the portfolio further into communications, growth, and digital themes (IBUY, SKYY), while trimming real estate, gold miners, and IPO exposure. Equities leadership shifts slightly, with Apple, Shopify, and Tesla stepping up, while Amazon exits.
Cheers,
Swami Research
info@swamiresearch.com
Swami Research