Swami Weekly Wrap: Oct 6, 2025 [New key levels to watch for SPY, QQQ, XLE]
Hi Swami Subs,
The Swami All-Equity Portfolio continues to outperform — now +23.5% YTD versus +15.2% for SPY, even as markets paused last week. Our systematic rebalance locked in gains on SHOP (+14.9%), replacing it with PLTR, which saw strengthening signal momentum into the pullback. Core holdings like JPM, MS, GS, and TSLA remain among the highest-ranked names in the model.
Macro signals were largely unchanged from last week — Bitcoin broke higher confirming another correct call, gold surged through reversal levels, and energy (XLE) bounced but didn’t yet trigger new entries. Meanwhile, DBA and SOYB join the growing list of correct commodity calls, extending our streak to 16 in a row since May 1st.
CRYPTO: Bitcoin finally paying off; fractal reversal in play for BTC/USD off new higher high (another correct GBTC signal from 8/21 makes 16 in a row for Swami)
EQUITIES: No change to view, long term bullish and get aggressive at the right price. New add levels for SPY/QQQ are 657 and 591, respectively (XLE is $87.12)
BONDS: Key level for TLT holding around $87.99
COMMODITIES: Gold ripping through all reversal levels, no sign of slowing. DBA breaking trend (neutral now) so no signal to take here; same for USO (breaks to bearish trend)
CURRENCIES: Still too early to tell on DXY, no action
Swami All-Equity Portfolio:
Performance of the Swami All-Equity portfolio remains robust, our portfolio advanced 0.3% last week (vs SPY -0.2%). Our YTD performance is +23.5% versus 15.2% for SPY, as of Friday's close. The portfolio is rebalanced each Friday at market close to reflect the top exposures within the SECTORS, FACTOR, and THEMATIC ETFs we track, as well as within the top ASSET HEAVY and ASSET LIGHT Individual Equities we send out in the Daily ETF Report. Many of last weeks "top signals" remain in the portfolio: JPM, MS, GS and TSLA remain as high signal strength INDIVIDUAL EQUITIES from last week.
New Additions / Buys:
XLC (Communications) takes over as the top sector signal, joined by XLY (Consumer Discretionary) as the second-strongest sector setup.
On the factor side, leadership remains firmly with Russell 1k Growth (IWF) and Vanguard Growth (VUG), with Momentum (MTUM) re-emerging as a new addition and confirming continued preference for growth and trend strength.
In thematic exposure, Amplify Online Retail (IBUY) and First Trust Cloud Computing (SKYY) stay positioned as the top innovation-driven themes.
Among equities, Tesla (TSLA) leads the Asset Light group, with Palantir (PLTR) and Applied Materials (AMAT) stepping in to replace last week’s names. The Asset Heavy basket remains anchored by JP Morgan (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Goldman Sachs (GS).
Exits / Sells:
XLE (Energy) rotated out on the sector side after a strong multi-week run, while Vanguard MegaCap Growth (MGK) was removed from the factor sleeve.
In individual equities, both Shopify (SHOP) and Apple (AAPL) were sold as signal strength declined week-over-week, consistent with our systematic rotation rules.
Takeaway:
This week’s rebalance reflects a rotation away from energy and mega-cap concentration and deeper into momentum, growth, and digital innovation themes. The model continues to favor leadership in communications, consumer discretionary, and technology-linked equities, while maintaining stability through the major financials in the Asset Heavy sleeve.
Cheers,
Swami Research
info@swamiresearch.com
Swami Research