Swami Weekly Wrap: Oct 13, 2025 [Long-awaited buy signals]
Hi Swami Subs,
After weeks of mixed signals, the market is finally starting to move — and the system is flashing fresh buy signals across key risk assets. QQQ’s signal strengthened into Friday’s close, while oil’s trend break and a firming U.S. dollar mark a subtle but important change in the macro backdrop. Bonds and crypto both sit at inflection points, setting up what could be a pivotal week across all asset classes.
COMMODITIES: Volatile in the aggregate. Oil follows through on last week’s early trend break signal; gold remains a key differentiator in every way
EQUITIES: Pay attention under the hood. Avoid trend-breaking and weakening sector/factors, but QQQ actually strengthened on Friday’s price action. System says buy
BONDS: Treasury and US Dollar price action starting to look different than the last few months. View equities with caution
CRYPTO: Also a buy, but volatility is elevated. Odds of a trend break are high here—add with caution
CURRENCIES: USD starting to break bullish for the first time since breaking its uptrend in February. Is it different this time?
Swami Macro Scorecard
New Signals (triggered 10/10/2025)
- SPY – S&P 500 ETF – Buy signal at $653.02, confirming a new uptrend after recent consolidation.
- QQQ – Nasdaq 100 ETF – Buy signal at $589.50, also entering a confirmed uptrend, supported by strengthening signal momentum into Friday’s close.
Swami All-Equity Portfolio:
After a strong multi-month run, the Swami All-Equity Portfolio pulled back modestly last week, finishing down 2.5% week-over-week versus the SPY –2.4%. Despite the short-term softness, the model remains solidly ahead for the year — up +20.2% YTD compared with +12.4% for SPY. This week’s move was largely driven by rotation across growth and technology exposures as the broader market consolidated from recent highs.
New Additions / Buys
- XLK (Technology) now leads as the top sector signal, joined by XLI (Industrials) as the model begins to re-balance toward more cyclical strength.
- On the factor side, IWF (Russell 1000 Growth), VUG (Vanguard Growth), and MGK (MegaCap Growth) continue to anchor the growth leadership sleeve.
- Within thematic exposure, the model re-introduced smaller-cap and alternative-energy themes via IWC (MicroCap ETF) and ICLN (Clean Energy ETF).
- Among equities, TSLA (Tesla) and PLTR (Palantir Technologies) remain top Asset Light holdings, while AAPL (Apple) re-enters as Asset Light #3. On the Asset Heavy side, new strength was seen in ULTA (Beauty), V (Visa), and BA (Boeing) — all showing improving relative momentum.
Exits / Sells
- The portfolio exited XLC (Communications) and XLY (Consumer Discretionary) on the sector side after multi-week runs and weakening short-term signal strength.
- Momentum (MTUM), Cloud Computing (SKYY), and SPDR Innovative (XITX) were all rotated out of the thematic sleeve.
- Among individual names, Applied Materials (AMAT) and the core financials JPM, MS, and GS were sold as part of a systematic unwind in Asset Heavy exposure after relative-strength declines.
Takeaway
This week’s rebalance marks a pivot from defensiveness to selective growth and industrial exposure, while trimming some of the extended technology and financial positions. The portfolio continues to maintain leadership in Tesla and Palantir, with new inflows into industrial and clean-energy themes setting up for potential rotation strength into Q4.
Cheers,
Swami Research
info@swamiresearch.com
Swami Research