Swami Weekly Wrap: Aug 10th, 2026 [Wait-and-watch; volatility elevated on dollar retracement]

Hi Swami Subs,

This week’s board is mostly wait-and-watch. SPY is showing some life off the The July 17 SPY buy signal delivered this week, with equities finally showing stronger follow-through. That is the good news. The more cautious part of the setup is that fractal reversal signals are now starting to mount, which suggests the next 1–3 weeks could bring consolidation or a pullback rather than a clean continuation higher.

This is still primarily a wait-and-watch board. The dollar is flirting with a trend break, bonds remain firmly bearish, crypto is still bearish but rangebound, and commodities are bouncing inside broader downtrends. Gold is approaching its trend line, but many commodity signals still look more like counter-trend bounces than confirmed bullish reversals.

On the Swami All-Equity side, SAE lagged last week because it was underweight the AI / growth / software surge. Names like TEAM and PLTR ripped roughly 40% higher on the week, while SAE advanced only +0.3% versus SPY +3.5%. Even with that miss, year-to-date outperformance remains significant: SAE +17.6% versus SPY +14.0%.