[Special 2024 Wrap Up] Swami Weekly Wrap - Dec 30, 2024
![[Special 2024 Wrap Up] Swami Weekly Wrap - Dec 30, 2024](/content/images/size/w960/2025/01/Swami-Research-Logo.png){kind=logo}
Hi Swami Subs,
As we wrap up 2024, let's dive into a year of navigating market twists and turns:
- 37/58 (64%) signals correct, and most incorrect calls were clustered within 2 time points: March to mid-April and November-December
- Market dip in March caught us, but we were sharper through the more significant July-August dip, sticking with gold/forex/bond signals
- Big changes in trend have materialized at the end of Q4, making the #1 priority heading into 2025 caution. Benefit of the doubt still needs to be given to higher equities, but the risk of a new prolonged trend of elevated volatility is higher than usua
Our Swami Score proved once again to be a solid signal strength tool in 2024, with a strong correlation between 2024 Average Swami Score and 2024 Returns.
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Big picture heading into 2025:Gold/dollar holds; gap between growth & value continues to widen
CRYPTO: Bitcoin may be setting up a lower high here; continue to risk manage longs as a breakdown lower still possible
CURRENCIES: Dollar still strong, corroborating what we’re seeing in other assets
COMMODITIES: Gold a hold, the rest look bleak
EQUITIES: Value imploding vs growth. Volatility elevated, growth is a potential buy but should be risk managed as the correction may run deeper
BONDS: New 12-month low for TLT. Absolutely no reason to own bonds of any kind here
CRYPTO: Bitcoin may be setting up a lower high here; continue to risk manage longs as a breakdown lower still possible
CURRENCIES: Dollar still strong, corroborating what we’re seeing in other assets
COMMODITIES: Gold a hold, the rest look bleak
EQUITIES: Value imploding vs growth. Volatility elevated, growth is a potential buy but should be risk managed as the correction may run deeper
BONDS: New 12-month low for TLT. Absolutely no reason to own bonds of any kind here
Cheers,
Swami Research
info@swamiresearch.com